The Clippers Are 1–1, and I’m Once Again Confusing Hope With Analysis

The Clippers are 1–1, and I’m encouraged. If you’ve known me for any length of time, you may want to sit me down before this gets out of hand.

I’ve had season tickets for almost 30 years. At this point, my ability to talk myself into the Clippers should qualify as a preexisting condition. Every October I tell myself I’m going to be objective. Then a rookie makes a few good passes, we beat somebody by 25, and suddenly I’m explaining why nobody wants to see us in April.

This year, though, I have numbers. That makes it analysis. At least until somebody checks my work.

We opened with a 121–96 win over Sacramento, then lost 125–117 to the Lakers. Darius Garland scored 30 in the opener, and Keaton Wagler introduced himself with 15 points, five rebounds and five assists. ¹

There are reasons to like this team. There are also reasons to keep my expectations somewhere below the arena roof. I’m trying to accommodate both, which is considerably more balance than I usually demonstrate during a Lakers game.

Keaton Wagler is interfering with my efforts to be reasonable

I was already optimistic about Wagler. What has surprised me is how quickly he has been productive.

After that 15–5–5 debut, he followed with 13 points, three rebounds and three assists against the Lakers. The second game included 2-for-8 shooting and four turnovers, so there is no need to cancel his rookie orientation. But he still found ways to help when the jumper wasn’t cooperating. ¹⁶

That matters. A young player who needs every shot to fall before he contributes can be a fairly expensive spectator. Wagler is already giving us scoring, passing and rebounding, while getting an early education in what NBA defenders will allow.

With this many players unavailable, those contributions aren’t just nice developments for the future. We need them now.

I’m not putting him in the Hall of Fame after two games. I’m a reasonable man. I would at least like to see a third game before pricing the bronze.

Our depth chart currently requires a medical degree

Against the Lakers, the Clippers were missing Brandon Ingram, Yanic Konan Niederhauser, Bradley Beal, Jordan Miller and Max Strus. We’re two games into the season and already evaluating the roster in installments. ⁵

Ingram and Niederhauser are two players I could see starting when healthy, although Niederhauser still has to earn that job. Here is what the missing group produced in the 2025–26 regular season: ^7–11

Points, rebounds and assists are per game. Beal’s six games and Strus’ 12 are small samples, not full-season workloads.

Ingram’s production is the biggest reminder that we haven’t seen the whole team. Another player capable of creating offense would give Garland some help beyond our collective advice to “do something” when the shot clock gets low.

Niederhauser’s numbers require context: 10.3 minutes a game, with 0.7 blocks. I want to see what his finishing and activity around the basket can look like with more opportunity. Those averages aren’t proof of a starting center. They are a reason to want him available. ⁸

And yes, Bradley Beal is still a potentially useful tool in the toolbox. At the moment, we seem to be keeping the toolbox in the training room. Six games last season gives us very little recent evidence, so I’m treating him as potential help rather than ordering the Washington-era scoring package. But if he can get on the floor and stay there, there is talent worth using.

Miller’s absence bothers me, too. Ten points a night on 53.1 percent shooting is actual production, not something we invented after watching a workout video. I wanted to see him build on that and become one of those dependable players who helps win games without requiring a promotional campaign. Strus offers another perimeter option, although we should resist converting his 12-game shooting sample into a lifetime guarantee. ^10–11

Injuries happen to every team. With the Clippers, they seem to come with the season-ticket package. I keep looking for the box I accidentally checked.

Getting healthier won’t automatically fix everything. But judging this team without acknowledging who is missing would leave out a fairly important part of the story.

We played the Lakers competitively. Then we offered catering.

The Lakers won, and they earned it. I’m not hanging a banner for a respectable defeat. We have supplied that fan base with enough material without opening another department.

But the Clippers were within a point midway through the third quarter before a 14–1 Lakers run changed things. Garland finished with 26, Brook Lopez added 22, and we shot 43.2 percent from three. We also committed 26 turnovers and allowed the Lakers to shoot 58.2 percent. ²

Twenty-six turnovers is a generous evening. Unfortunately, the Lakers are not a registered charity, and I don’t believe any of those donations are deductible. If we’re going to help them that much, we should at least make them put a Pacifica Hotels logo on the basket.

The basketball issue is straightforward: turnovers cost shots and can put the defense in trouble before it gets organized. Good shooting cannot keep paying for all of that.

I liked that we could compete. I would like it even more if the Lakers had to provide all of their own offense.

Apparently, the league skipped orientation

The difficult start is real. RotoWire ranks the Clippers’ October schedule third-toughest, based on opponents’ winning percentages last season. The matchup-weighted figure is .588. That ranking covers October, not the entire next 15 games, and does not account for roster changes. ¹²

Our next three opponents—Oklahoma City, the Lakers and Minnesota—won 64, 53 and 49 games last year. All three are 2–0 entering October 25. Apparently, the league saw our injury report and prescribed a character-building exercise. ^13–14

Here is the next stretch. I recommend reading it seated. ³

Three of the next four are away. Golden State is followed the next night by Toronto at home, and this window ends with four straight road games. There is a useful run at Intuit Dome in between. We should probably take advantage of it before the luggage comes back out. ³

Golden State’s trophies are not eligible to play

The Warriors went 37–45 last season and have opened 0–3. They’re still dangerous, especially when Stephen Curry is available. But we should evaluate the team on the floor without awarding extra points for the trophies in the lobby. Their injuries matter, too; the November 1 version could be healthier than this week’s version. ^13–15

New Orleans, coming off 26–56 and now 0–3, is another game to approach as an opportunity. “Opportunity,” for clarity, is not the same as “win already entered in the spreadsheet.” I have been a Clippers fan too long to confuse those two things in writing. ^13–14

Houston is a different proposition: 52–30 last season, 3–0 now, with Fred VanVleet returning. I see another tough road assignment there. San Antonio’s 1–2 start doesn’t erase 62 wins and a Finals appearance. Three games are useful information; they are a poor reason to forget everything else we know. ^13–1416

This is a difficult stretch with some winnable games inside it. The trick will be collecting those wins while occasionally ruining a better team’s evening. A modest ambition, and one I wholeheartedly support.

October 25 at Oklahoma City: please keep your belongings

Thunder: 2–0 through October 24; 64–18 last season. ^13–14

Oklahoma City led the league in defensive rating last season and has allowed just 95.9 points per 100 possessions through two games this year. Two games won’t settle the rankings, but this is a particularly inconvenient opponent for a team coming off 26 turnovers. ⁴

The Thunder lost depth, including Lu Dort, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins. I still see a contender built around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and a young core that can keep improving. A few departures have not turned this into a courtesy visit. ¹⁶

I’ll watch whether the Clippers give Garland useful outlets, move the ball before pressure closes in, and get into their offense early enough to run something besides an emergency.

For Wagler, the simple pass will sometimes be the right one. I remain willing to delay the statue if it helps us retain possession.

An upset would be terrific. Cleaner execution would also count as progress, even if it makes a less exciting group text.

October 28 vs. the Lakers: same neighbors, second argument

Lakers: 2–0 through October 24; 53–29 last season. ^13–14

LeBron James is gone, while Walker Kessler gives this version a different presence inside. I’m not declaring the whole team better after two wins, but the rim protection looks more imposing. We recently participated in the demonstration. ¹⁶

The benefit of playing the Lakers twice in six days is immediate feedback. The drawback is hearing their fans explain the championship plan twice before Halloween.

I want to see Ty Lue’s adjustments show up in fewer easy finishes, better ball security and steadier possessions when the Lakers make a run. We don’t have to recover a ten-point deficit with one shot, however strongly the crowd and my blood pressure might prefer it.

At the other end, make them defend through more than one action. Move the ball, make the extra read, and use the home crowd. Giving Intuit Dome something to get loud about would be considerably more enjoyable than asking it to supply encouragement while we throw the ball away.

October 30 at Minnesota: the enthusiasm has to travel, too

Timberwolves: 2–0 through October 24; 49–33 last season. ^13–14

Minnesota added LaMelo Ball and moved on from Julius Randle and Naz Reid. My read: more playmaking upside next to Anthony Edwards, less frontcourt depth, and more dependence on Rudy Gobert inside. There are new problems to defend and a few vulnerabilities to explore. ¹⁶

Their opening wins were by 25 over Miami and 22 over Orlando. Two games, yes. But they have been making their introductions at considerable volume. ¹⁷

The Clippers will need second and third actions when the first option disappears. I’d like to see the offense survive the words “well, that didn’t work” without immediately turning into a difficult individual shot.

Finishing defensive possessions matters just as much. Getting a stop and surrendering the rebound is a very polite way to ask the opponent whether they’d like another try.

That makes this a good test of habits. The energy from the Lakers rematch has to become something we can pack and take to Minnesota, rather than leave behind with the home uniforms.

My expectations remain reasonable, subject to the next good game

I’m still looking at a team that can stay around .500, push toward 42 wins, and make somebody uncomfortable in the play-in. Fifty wins can wait until I have evidence strong enough to say it in front of witnesses.

A 7–8 or 8–7 record over these next 15 would keep that outlook alive. Those are my benchmarks, not the output of a forecasting model. The model is currently a season-ticket holder with a browser and a history of getting carried away.

I want fewer wasted possessions, young players earning trust, and a defense that can get itself organized after a bad stretch. I want the home games to become an advantage. And eventually I would enjoy seeing more of the people whose names appear on our roster.

There is enough here to be interested. Wagler has been productive sooner than I expected. Garland has given the offense a scoring foundation. Several missing players could help. The schedule is rough, but there are games in it we can win.

So yes, I’ve talked myself into being optimistic again.

Almost 30 years of season tickets. Two games of evidence. You would think one of those numbers would have taught me something by now.